Today we are into the second round of the Men's NCAA Basketball Championships.    Yesterday provided more excitement and drama for us.    Cornell started the day with an impressive win over a good Temple squad, and the Big Red may get a look from me tomorrow.

As for the MB Blog.   What have you come to expect?  More winning.   A 2-0 day yesterday with Xavier and Gonzaga winning and covering and moving my blog record to 25-10-1 since I began blogging.   My NCAA tourney record is a more modest 3-1.

Today the action begins at the Dunkin' Donut Center in Providence, Rhode Island.   At 1:00 EST, the St. Mary's Gaels take on the Villanova Wildcats.    Two very good teams with two very different levels of confidence.    St. Mary's didn't beat a very good defensive team in Richmond, they embarrassed the Spiders.  The Gaels owned the glass.   St. Mary's had 39 rebounds to Richmond's 16.   The Gaels shot over 49% from the field, while holding Richmond to 2 second chance baskets.   That is a dominated performance, and that makes two consecutive wins over top-25 teams.   Last week, the Gaels turned in a similar dominating performance over West Coast rival Gonzaga.   

St. Mary's does three things very well.   They play defense, they shoot the 3 well, and they the glass with all five players.  Against Richmond, St. Mary's had 4 players with 6 or more rebounds.    That is impressive.

Villanova is simply a mess right now.   The public and media keep waiting for the Wildcats to break out of this funk, but 'Nova isn't doing it.  They rely so much on the shooting of their senior guards, that when they are not hitting the 3, it makes it difficult for them to win.    More disturbing for Wildcat fans should be their inside play, or should I say, lack of inside play?  

St. Mary's is just a better basketball team than Villanova is right now, and St. Mary's effort on the glass will carry them today against Villanova. 

The selection in this game is St. Mary's (+4.5)

Today's second selection can be found in the Ford Center, in Oklahoma City between two very good basketball teams.  The BYU Cougars take on the Kansas State Wildcats in a second round West Regional matchup.    This is a different story than my first preview.   Both of these teams are playing well, and have tons of confidence.   

BYU is 30-5 on the season, and they continue to win by limiting turnovers, shooting the lights out of every gym they play in and racing up and down the court wearing teams down.    BYU's opening round game was a little closer than I expected, but the Cougars did get a 2-OT cover against Florida.   As BYU has done all year they made FT's when it counted most, making almost 80% of their FT.   The one hiccup the Cougars had was rebounding, but Florida was a taller, and more physical group than BYU has seen most of the year.

Kansas State is the #2 seed in the West Regional and rightfully so.   The Wildcats have played well all season and 3 of their 7 losses have come against top-ranked Kansas.    They have been consistent all year.   KSU Coach Frank Martin is a fiery, emotional leader who gets the most out of his kids, and he has them playing lock down defense and rebonding very well.   Kansas State though does have problems with teams that like to get out and run, and it is BYU's style of play that will cause them headaches today.  

I am not confident in a straight up BYU upset win, but I love the points.    I think BYU takes this down to the last few minutes and Kansas State's FT shooting is shaky enough to make any Wildcat backer extrememly nervous if this game is tight late.

The selection in the second game is BYU (+4).

So, today looks like a dog day.   Two plays today----St. Mary's and BYU.

As always, best of luck to everyone!

Wow, what an opening day.    The folks at Murray State and Wake Forest are waking up with smiles on their faces as their two teams hit buzzer-beating shots to move into tomorrow's second round of the NCAA tournament, while Texas and Vanderbilt learned all too well the bitter taste of defeat.

Yesterday, the MB blog experienced both as I split my blog selections.   BYU's OT win over Florida covered the 4.5 while Richmond was dominated by St. Mary's to lose their opening round game.    The split brings my record to 24-10-1 ATS to date.

Today we see two games in the West Regional.   The first one up is in the Bradley Center in Milwaukee between the Minnesota Golden Golphers of the Big Ten and the Xavier Musketeers of the A10.   Minnesota enters today's game as the #11 seed, and an overall record of 21-13, while Xavier finished a very respectable 24-8 in their conference play.

This game is the tale of two very different teams.   Minnesota coach Tubby Smith has watched his team play very inconsistenly down the stretch of the regular season.    They played "EKG" basketball---up one week, down the next.     They were swept by woeful Michigan, but managed to beat Wisconsin.   They lost to Northwestern convincingly, but played Purdue to the very end.    Tubby Smith spoke about his team being tired during the final of the Big 10 tournament against Ohio State, and I am not convinced they will have found their legs by game time.

Xavier is in their 9th tournament in the last 10 years.   Very impressive for a small non-BCS school like Xavier.    Gonzaga gets all the mid-major press, but Xavier has every bit the resume the 'Zags have.    Xavier has won 13 of their last 15 games, with their only losses being to respectable to Richmond in the A10 tournament and at Dayton nearly 2 months ago.   

Xavier is the better shooting team, and they are the defensive equivalent here.     They are also a deeper squad than Minnesota is, and I love the inside presence Xavier has.   The golden rule of the importance of guard play in the NCAA tournament lives on in this game, as the Musketeers will have the deeper rotation at the point.    

The selection here is the Xavier Musketeers (+1), running the tired Golden Gophers out of the NCAA tournament and marching on toward the second round.

The second selection in today's blog is the Gonzaga Bulldogs.   The Bulldogs have made this NCAA trip an annual visit since they grabbed America's attention more than a decade ago with their cindarella run.   Since that time the Bulldogs have dominated the West Coast Conference and have caused teams headaches year in and year out.   Bulldog coach Mark Few is a tournament veteran who knows what it takes to win these opening round games, and that is one tanglible piece to use when considering the Bulldogs.

For Florida State this is just the first time in nearly two decades that the Seminoles have made it to the NCAA tournament in consecutive years.    This experience is very new to them, and Leonard Hamilton may have to temper his team's enthusiasm some.   

Florida State gave a very uninspired effort againt NC State in the opening round of the ACC tournament.   The Seminoles just didn't display any emotion, and were flat from the start of that contest.   Florida State has some nice wins this year, but they also have some very bad losses.    Florida State is a very athletic team, and coach Leonard Hamilton has been a calming, effective voice to his eager squad.

The bottom line in this one though is Gonzaga's experience.    The Bulldogs just bring too much of it to the table and they are sneaky athletic.   The Bulldogs win this game, and will move on in the tournament.

The selection here is Gonzaga (+1).

As always, best of luck to everyone!

The Madness----has arrived.

And oh how sweet it is.    Today begins that annual rite of passage that captures office workers everywhere.   Everyone with a pulse on sports, and even those without one---manage to focus their attention on the NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship for the next three weekends, culminating in the Final Four to be played in Indianapolis.

The MB Blog rolls into tournament with a 23-9-1 record ATS, and I am going to profile two games in this blog.

The first is an early game, focusing on the BYU Cougars (-4.5) and the Florida Gators.    BYU enters this game as the #7 seed in the West Regional.   The Cougars are 29-5 on the season, while Florida is seeded 10^th, and bring a 21-12 record into this first round game.   This game is a 12:30 EST start, and is being played in Oklahoma City.   The Cougars are going to run the Gators into submission, they enter the contest as the #2 scoring team in the country, averaging 83.5 points per game;  they also lead the country in scoring margin and free throw shooting.    BYU is a guard dominated team, and when this time of the year rolls around it is usually guard play and free throw shooting that carry a team deep into this tournament.   

Florida isn't a deep team, and in a track meet against the Cougars they will be in serious trouble trying to match the Cougars' speed and pace of play.   The Gators enter today's contest as losers of four of their last five games, and were a team squarely on the bubble for the NCAA selection committee.   More, the SEC wasn't a good basketball conference this season, and the Gators lost to some very average teams down the stretch of their season.  

As this game plays out, I think BYU will pull away comfortably.    They are just a better basketball than the Gators are, and Florida will not be able to keep up with the scoring pace of the Cougars.

The selection here is BYU (-4.5).

In my second selection I am heading up to Providence, Rhode Island to focus on the second game being played there between the Richmond Spiders and the St. Mary's Gaels.     Richmond is a slight favorite in this contest, with the Spiders being a 1-point favorite over St. Mary's.

The Spiders enter the contest as one of the hottest teams in college basketball.    They are having perhaps their best season in school history.   They are the #7 seed in the South Regional, and they bring in an overall record of 26-8.    St. Mary's reversed their recent history of being stalled on the NCAA bubble and took away all doubt when they won West Coast conference tournament.     The Gaels have an overall record of 26-5. 

The nod goes to Richmond here.   When I compared styles of play, I really don't think St. Mary's has faced a defense as good as Richmond's.   The Spiders get after teams, especially teams that rely on the perimeter for their offense as St. Mary's does.   Richmond has played a much more difficult schedule, beating teams like Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and Rhode Island.   The Spiders neutralized those teams by being physical inside and limiting opportunities from behind the arc.  

St. Mary's does have impressive wins over Utah State and Gonzaga, but the Gaels matched up well with those teams.   St. Mary's lost guard Wayne Hunter to a knee injury early in the season, and they changed their lineup.   The new lineup isn't as athletic and that will hurt them against the Spiders.

The selection in this game is Richmond (-1).

As always, best of luck to everyone!!!!

Taken from yesterday's [B][I]USA Today[/I][/B]

For those of you who play the bracket contests....the number to start this thread is the number of different bracket possibilities that exist.

You have a better chance at winning the powerball on consecutive weekends than you do of getting a perfect bracket.

It would be easier to pick the winners of the next 12 World Series correctly than it is to select a perfect bracket.

It would also be easier to predict every presidential election from now until 2260 than it is to hit a perfect bracket.

If you assume all #1 seeds win their opening game, there are still 268,435,456 different outcomes for the first round.

If you assume a team seeded 1-8 will make the final four---there are still 4,096 ways for that to happen.

If the tournament expands to 96 teams, predicting a perfect bracket would be more difficult than winning the powerball on 4 consecutive weekends.

But hey, good luck.

Well today is the last day before madness takes over all of us.   It is the day when the remaining champions of a few conferences will be crowned and for today's blog I am focusing on the Atlantic-10 championship game.

Yesterday the selection was NC State and I actually liked the Wolfpack on the moneyline to beat Georgia Tech outright and move toward the ACC championship game.    Unfortunately it didn't work out for Sidney Lowe's squad and they gave away a late lead and lost to Georgia Tech.

It dropped the MB Blog record to 22-9-1 since I began blogging my selections on SBR, and I still had an amazing run over the last two weeks where I went 11-2 over my last 13 blog selections.

Today's A10 Championship game is in Atlantic City, and it is between two teams that are obviously NCAA bound regardless of the outcome.    There may be slightly more for Temple on the line here, as a win here would more than likely give the Owls a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Temple has won 9 straight, and their last loss came against?   You guessed it.   Richmond.   The Spiders beat down Temple on February 6^th, 71-54.    In the A10 tournament Temple has beaten St. Bonaventure in the quarter-finals, and followed that win up with a defeat of Rhode Island in yesterday's action.

Richmond is just a very hot team right now, and they have been winning impressively.   The Spiders have won 12 of their last 13, with their only loss being a dramatic 2-point setback at Xavier.   Richmond's A10 wins have come against Massachusetts on Friday night, and they beat avenged their loss to Xavier yesterday with a come-from-behind win over the Musketeers in OT, 89-85.

In games such as these I always favor the team that has had the toughest path to the tournament final, and that directional flag points toward Richmond.    Adding to my confidence in the Spiders is their winning streak.    They are the best shooting team in the A10, and their offensive system gives Temple fits.  

The earlier win for the Spiders over Temple wasn't a fluke.   The Spiders look to push the ball and as hard as Temple tries to slow the game down and make it a half-court game, they are just unable to do it against Richmond.

The Spiders shot 56% against the Owls earlier in the season, and they made 9 shots from behind the 3 point arc.   Temple fell behind early and they were unable to recover.    At halftime Richmond led by 18, and coasted in the second half for the win.

College basketball is about matchups and which teams styles of play can frustrate the opposing team.    In this game today, I see it being more of the same for Richmond.    The Spiders will look to run out on the Owls, while the Owls try to slow them down.

Temple will still have advantages on the glass, and particularly inside but it won't be enough to overcome Richmond's speed and athleticism.     The line here is 3.5, and I am genuinely surprised it is that high.     I expected it to be around 1, to 1.5 tops, and at 3.5 it looks very valuable.

Richmond's history of making noise in the NCAA tournament will be talked about all week long.   Their style of play will cause problems for whoever is unfortunate enough to draw them in their bracket.  Chris Mooney's squad will continue to ride their wave of momentum to an Atlantic 10 Championship today, and Mooney deserves all the accolades he is given in the post-season.

The selection here is Richmond +3.5.

As always, best of luck to everyone!

Let the Madness begin.........................

The Big East Semi-Finals put an end to two streaks last night.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish saw their end-of-the season run come to a dramatic ending when guard Tory Jackson's 3-point jumper glanced off the rim and allowed West Virginia to survive a thrilling 53-51 win over Notre Dame and move the Mountaineers into tonight's Big East Championship Final against Georgetown.

The other streak that died last night was the MB Blog winning streak which stood at 7 straight heading into ND's loss.

That brings my blogging record to 22-8-1 since I began blogging here, which includes a streak of 11-2 my last 13 blog selections.

Today I am looking at the second ACC Semi-Final, between the NC State Wolfpack and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

NC State fans are dreaming back to that special season of 1983 when Jimmy Valvano led his underdog Wolfpack to an improbable ACC tourney championship which propelled them into the NCAA tourney and a National Championship.

That won't happen this year. NC State just doesn't have the horses to go on that kind of a run, but they are talented enough to win today. The Wolfpack enter today's 3:30EST game coming off two straight wins over Clemson and Florida State who are both NCAA tournament bound. In order for NC State to continue their run they need freshman Scott Wood to continue to shoot the 3 well. State's success depends on their perimeter shooting, it has been their achilles' all season long. When they shoot well it opens up things inside for All-ACC Forward Tracy Smith. When teams can't collapse inside on Smith, he gets his looks and can take over a game. That has happened in State's big wins this year. When they beat Duke by double-digits earlier this season it was through a combination of perimeter shooting and the inside play of Smith.

Sidney Lowe who was the point guard on that 1983 National Championship team for NC State knows a thing or two about guard play in the post-season. Lowe has preached to his guards (Farnold Degand and Javier Gonzalez) to limit their turnovers and not to force the ball. Last night the Pack committed 15 first half turnovers and were down by 3 at the break. In the second half State committed just 3 turnovers and they outscored FSU by 9 to get the win.

Many ACC fans probably wouldn't even consider this an upset if State beats the Yellowjackets. After all, even though they are considered a "lock" to be included in the NCAA tournament, Georgia Tech is still just 21-11 overall and they had a losing 7-9 record in the ACC this year. They struggled to beat North Carolina in their ACC opener and then had an impressive win over Maryland yesterday. However, anyone watching that game saw a very uninspired Maryland effort and I came away convinced that Tech was very fortunate to get that win yesterday.

These two teams played at Georgia Tech back in January and Tech won 73-71. There isn't much to take away from that result as the two teams are very different than when they played that game. State has slowed their tempo down similar to the way Notre Dame has, and Georgia Tech remains as unpredictable as ever. Tech has yet to run away from any team the last 3 weeks of the regular season and for that reason I think NC State will hang around long enough to make keep this game within striking distance.

I see NC State continuing on a hot streak of good shooting, solid defense and the inside play of Tracy Smith. Tech has had problems scoring all season, and I think that continues today against State's combination zone and man-to-man. NC State didn't have Dennis Horner or Richard Howell 100% healthy when these two teams played earlier, and those two, along with the shooting of Wood will give NC State the win and move them into the ACC Championship tomorrow, with an NCAA bid on the line.

And who knows---maybe, just maybe Jimmy V is looking down and throwing some good luck the way of the Wolfpack.

As always, best of luck to everyone!

The Big East has proven what a dynamic conference it is.    The four quarterfinal games were "surprises" and "upsets" to the broadcasters and media, but to anyone following the Big East this year it should be clear these weren't upsets.   Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, and West Virginia are all very good basketball teams and there isn't much separating the top eight teams in this conference, and for that reason, the Big East has proven why it is the best conference in men's college basketball.

As for the MB Blog--the winning is getting out of hand.    Yesterday's ND moneyline win brings my run to 21-7-1, approaching 75% since I began blogging here on SBR, and I am 11-1 my last 12 selections, and 6-0 this past week.    Does it get better than that?

Today I am focusing on the Big East semi-finals.

In the first game, The Georgetown Hoyas and Marquette Golden Eagles square off.    Georgetown is coming off a very impressive performance yesterday, knocking off the #1 seed Syracuse Orangemen in a game that saw the Hoyas pulling away late and sealing off a 91-84 win.   The Hoyas have seemingly corrected their offensive woes that slowed down their progress at times during the season.    The are the best shooting team in the Big East and in the first two games of the BE tourney they have shot impressively.

Marquette is Marquette.   Yesterday brought us their 15th game decided by 5 or fewer points, and the Golden Eagles didn't disappoint.   They knocked off the #4 seeded Villanova Wildcats and as they have done all year long, the Golden Eagles played hard, were tenacious on defense and shot the 3 particularly well when they needed to.   

What decides this game?   Georgetown's size.   It is tough for me to comprehend that Lazar Hayward at 6'5 is Marquette's "big" man.   Greg Monroe has been playing exceptionally well this tournament and yesterday there were times when Syracuse simply had no answer for him.   Marquette will play hard that we know, but I think Monroe will continue his solid play and I think he will be the difference in this game.   Chris Wright has stepped up his game, and Chris Allen has made some big shots from behind the 3-pt line in this tournament.   

The selection is the first game is Georgetown on the moneyline.

The second game features the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the West Virginia Mountaineers.   Notre Dame is officially now the hottest team in the country.   They have won 6 consecutive Big East games beating 4 top 15 teams in the process.   There hasn't been a run like this for the men's basketball team since Kelly Tripucka and Orlando Woolridge were marching toward the 1978 Final Four.  

Yesterday the Irish continued the new Mike Brey Big-10 esque offense/defense that he calls "burn", and the results was a win over the Pitt Panthers 50-45.  The Irish made Pittsburgh uncomfortable all game long, holding the Panthers to a season low 45 points.    That has been the Irish calling card as of late.   Efficiency on the offensive end, and lock 'em down defense on the other end.   It is obviously working.

West Virginia is coming off a thrilling 54-51 win over Cincinnati.   The Mountaineers watched their 9 point lead disappear over the final 4 mintues, and the Bearcats had a chance to win the game in regulation but they turned the ball over.   West Virginia capitalized and De'Sean Butler hit a 3, as time expired to give the Mountaineers the win.

Again, and I keep preaching this---but I am riding Notre Dame until they buck me off.    Their style of play is frustrating teams, and if West Virginia has an achilles' it is on the offensive end of the floor.   At times, WVU struggles to score points and I expect that Notre Dame will try to limit their opportunities and continue the frustration train that has given them success.

Notre Dame on the moneyline is the selection in the second semi-final.

As always, best of luck to everyone!!!

 

The only thing hotter than the MB Blog right now may be the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.    Yesterday's St. John's/Marquette game went according to plan.  Marquette raced to a large first half lead, and then watched their lead wilt away.   St. John's turned up their offense and the result was a 2 point win for the Golden Eagles, and more importantly a cover for the MB Blog.

That brings my blog record to 20-7-1, and caps off a streak of 9-1 over my last 10 blog selections.  

Today we are back in the Garden to focus on the Notre Dame Fighting Irsh and the Pitt Panthers.   Notre Dame is the hottest team in the country outside of the Kansas and Kentucky.    Mike Brey may have done his best coaching of his career in the last 3 weeks of the regular season.   On February 17th, ND lost an OT thriller to Louisville to bring their record to 17-10 and they were just 6-8 in Big East play.     Brey then decided it was time for an offensive change, especially with his senior All-American Luke Harangody on the sideline nursing a bone bruise to his knee.   Brey asked his team to put the brakes on his offensive team, and slow things down.   Perhaps more importantly, Brey preached defense, defense, defense.    Well, things changed for the Domers.   They rolled over Georgetown in DC, they returned to South Bend where they crushed Pitt by 15 in a game that really wasn't that close.  They then knocked off Connecticut and Marquette to end the season.    Last night was more of the same for ND.   They slowed their game down against Seton Hall, and frustrated the Pirates high flying offense.   The result was yet another Notre Dame win.  That makes 5 in a row for ND.

Pitt isn't anyone's slouch.    The Panthers enter tonight's game as the #2 overall seed in the Big East.    The Panthers have won 8 of their last 9 games, and their only loss in that stretch was the beating the took in South Bend.    Since February 6th, the Panthers have beaten Villanova, West Virginia, and Marquette.  

The interesting thing in this matchup tonight will be the style of play for both teams and how it will affect the pace of the game.    In the February 24th game, Notre Dame took the pace out of the game, and relied on their half court set to set up the 3.   It worked, the Irish made 10- 3 pointers and Pitt had no answer for the Irish's outside game.   Pitt shot 42% from the field in this matchup but they struggled from behind the arc making only 4 of 18.

I expect Pitt coach Jamie Dixon will try and force the issue and take ND out of what has been successful for them recently.     That is easier said than done however, as ND returns Luke Harangody into the starting lineup and Harangody's presence will make it more difficult for Dixon to run out defenders against Notre Dame's shooters.

Some bettors and broadcasters have thought that the Irish became a better team without Harangody, however that wouldn't be true.   Notre Dame's change in their style of play has made them a better team, and with Harangody in the lineup this team is going to be difficult to beat.    They frustrate teams into making mistakes and rushing shots, and right now they are just shooting the ball as good as any team in the country.

The selection here is Notre Dame.    The Irish are just too hot of a team to ignore and until they prove me otherwise the MB Blog rolls along with them.   Pitt will certainly try to avenge the earlier beating, but I don't they can beat Notre Dame in this spot.

As always, best of luck to everyone!

Another game last night, and yet another win.    The MB Blog is scorching right now, with an overall 19-7-1 record, which includes a 7-1 run the last week and a half.   

Where am I headed today?   New York, New York.    Basketball's playground.    The Garden.   MSG is hosting the Big East tournament and today the St. John's Red Storm square off against the Marquette Golden Eagles.    Marquette is headed to the NCAA tournament next week, while St. John's will be playing in the NIT.

Marquette enters today's game with an impressive 20-10 overall record and they are 11-7 inside the Big East.   The Red Storm finished the regular season on the positive side of the ledger at 17-14 but they struggled to finish 6-12 in conference action.

Yesterday the Red Storm pushed around a lifeless Connecticut team, and beat them down 73-51.   Not many expected that result, but it was clear early on in yesterday's game that Connecticut was mailing their effort in.    St. John's on the other hand, played aggressive and smothered Connecticut early on taking what little fight they had left in them.    It was an inspired effort and a nice win for the Red Storm.

Marquette enters the game as the 5th seed in the Big East tournament.   A testament to the success they had this year in Big East play.   They are coming off a hard OT loss at home to Notre Dame.

These two teams battled on this very same court on February 24th, and the Golden Eagles earned a hard fought OT win, beating St. John's 63-61.

And that game has an interesting story to tell.   It proved one thing rather convincingly, St. John's can play with Marquette.   Even moreso, when the game is played in the Garden.

St. John's has some nice wins in the Big East this season.   They have beaten Louisville, South Florida and Notre Dame, but they have also been very competitive in close losses.    They have lost tight games to Duke, Pitt, Georgetown and kept it close with Villanova.   The secret to their success has been their home floor.   The Red Storm has been competitive on the Garden floor and I like that heading into today's game.

Marquette is an interesting story.    They won 20 games this season, but they very easily could have cracked the 24-25 win mark had they had a little more luck.   They have played 14 games decided by 5 points or fewer, and they have 6 of those.   Early on in the season they lost tough games to teams like NC State, Florida State, West Virginia, and they twice lost to Villanova by a single bucket.

In evaluating this game there isn't much to be taken from ATS streaks, records or recent trends.   Both teams have played as described above.  St. John's finished 4-4 down the 8-game stretch of the end of their regular season, they managed to beat Louisville by 19, South Florida by 16, and Notre Dame by 1.  They also lost to Pitt, Syracuse, and as mentioned above--Marquette.   

Marquette continued to play close games.   They won three tight contests before blowing out Louisville and then closing out the regular season with a loss to ND at home.

So what is the angle then?   It is that very same recent history.  

St. John's will play Marquette every bit as tough as they did a few weeks back, and a line approaching 4 points is much to high to expect a Marquette cover.   The Red Storm are playing on their home floor, and they are getting a little bit of disrespect from linesmakers.   They have athletes that can play in this spot and Marquette's lack of depth is the reason they have played so many tight games.    The Golden Eagles get very little from their bench and come tournament time foul trouble can spell trouble for any team, especially with one with as little depth as Marquette.

The selection here is St. John's.  The Red Storm will keep this game close and they may earn an outright win here.   

As always, best of luck to everyone!

 

The MB Blog is smoking hot right now.   My blog record stands at 18-7-1, which includes a 7-1 record over the last week.    This is my favorite time of year, with the NCAA conference tournaments on hand and the pending NCAA March Madness tournament to follow.    The games begin early and end late, with a buffet of games for the bettors among us to enjoy.

Today the action is in the A10, and I am looking toward the Reilly Center in St. Bonaventure, NY, where the Bonnies of St. Bonaventure host the Duquesne Dukes.   The Bonnies enter the contest 14-15 overall on the year, with a 7-9 conference mark as well.    Duquesne ended the regular season 16-14 overall and were also 7-9 in conference play.

The Bonnies ended the regular season impressively, winning 4 of their last 5, including beating Duquesne 92-80 on March 3rd.    These two teams also played in Pittsburgh back on January 23rd, and the Dukes held on to a 70-69 win in that one.   

St. Bonaventure had won four consecutive conference games for the first time in a decade, and Bonnie coach Mark Schmidt deserves a lot of credit for the run.   He has continued to juggle his lineup to find the right mix when many coaches would have mailed it in.   Schmidt has two true sophs leading his late season charge-- guard Michael Davenport and C Andrew Nicholson.    Nicholson leads the Bonnies with 16 ppg and is pulling down 7.1 boards per contest as well.   Davenport is averaging about 9 points per game and 5 rebounds every time out.   

Nicholson and Davenport have lit up Duquesne this season.   In fact, Duquesne has struggled mightily trying to defend Nicholson.  In their first game, Nicholson scored 29 points, grabbed 8 boards and blocked 2 shots.   In the second game, Nicholson followed up that effort with a 21 point, 7 rebound game.   The difference in the second game was the supporting cast for the Bonnies.    For the game, St. Bonaventure shot 56%, and four players scored in double digits.   In fact, 3 players scored more than 15.   This has been the secret to the Bonnies' recent success.   They are shooting very well, they are passing the ball, and they are rebounding well.   In fact, in the March 3rd contest the Bonnies outrebounded Duquesne by almost 10 boards.  

In their four-game conference winning streak, St. Bonaventure shot 54% from the field.   They topped 50% in three games (LaSalle, Rhode Island and Duquesne), and they outrebounded the opposing team in all four games.    That is how you win basketball games.   In their last game of the season, the Bonnies lost to conference biggie Xavier--but they still shot .493% from the field, which is the highest FG% Xavier had given up in 13 games. 

I don't think ATS streaks matter much in evaluating this contest.    These two teams have already played twice this season, and we know the results.   Duquesne does not have an answer for Nicholson inside and the Bonnies have been shooting lights out the past 2 weeks of the regular season.  More importantly, the Dukes don't have any noticeable statistical advantage to warrant any consideration in this spot.  

I expect this line will expand as the day moves on, in fact I was surprised to see it below 2 this morning.   Jump on it early and often and big.   The Bonnies will not disappoint.   They are playing with confidence and they know they can beat Duquesne in this spot.   You need one final bit of information for convincing?   This game is being played at St. Bonaventure, and the Dukes have struggled to win on the road within the A10.   I just don't believe they can push aside the beating they took in this very same gym last week and turn around their road struggles.    Duquesne didn't just lose on March 3rd in at St. Bonaventure, they were beaten badly.   That kind of loss will wear on a team's pysche, especially with it being so recent.

I love St. Bonaventure in this game, and I think they cover the 1.5 or even 2----rather easily.

As always, best of luck to everyone!!!