[URL="http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/MFING-SUPER-BOWL.gif"][IMG]http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/MFING-SUPER-BOWL.gif[/IMG][/URL]













[URL="javascript:;"][/URL][URL="javascript:;"][/URL]

First of all---Thanks for even taking 10 seconds to open my thread.

Next. I welcome every jokes, ball busting, taunts, and of course---worship in my thread. The more shit thrown, usually makes for a more entertaining thread.

I am not one of the sensitve sally's that get lathered up if you rip or question their picks. In fact, on more than one occasion a post has made me re-examine a selection and saved me money.

Last year I played 4 college games a week--and they were always my Beat the Prick selections....

Okay you sicko gamblers----

Start celebrating.

CBS announced that a partnership with TBS, TNT and TruTv will allow them to televise every single game of the NCAA Tourney.

NEW YORK -- College basketball fans will see a whole lot more of the NCAA tournament on TV this March, including during prime time on the first Sunday night, according to a report.
CBS and Turner Sports, in the first year of a joint 14-year, $10.8 billion deal to broadcast the tournament, will announce Thursday that fans will get to see all games in their entirety thanks to staggered tip-off times and expanded coverage in the early rounds, USA Today is reporting.
Games will be seen on CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV, allowing organizers to spread out start times in contrast to the regional coverage offered in years past. CBS executive vic e president Mike Aresco told the paper the plan is to "create nonstop basketball from noon [ET] to midnight."
The tournament is expanding from 65 to 68 teams this year.

[url]http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2010/news/story?id=6101711[/url]


LAS VEGAS -- Sports books in Nevada hung on to win just over $724,000 from Super Bowl bets despite heavy gambling on the [URL="http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/gb/green-bay-packers"]Green Bay Packers[/URL] and lots of scoring.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board said Tuesday that $87.5 million were wagered on the NFL's championship game in 183 sports books across the state.
Of those bets, casinos kept less than 1 percent.
Green Bay beat the [URL="http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-steelers"]Pittsburgh Steelers[/URL] 31-25 in Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Sunday night. The Packers were a 2½-point favorite in most Las Vegas casinos, giving their supporters a win with the six-point victory.
The combined 56 points scored helped bettors who gambled that the total would go over about 45 points.
Nevada casinos won $6.9 million on $82.7 million in Super Bowl bets last year.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-5) take on the Army Black Knights (6-4) Satuday night in Yankee Stadium before a sell-out crown on National TV.

This is the 50th matchup between the two programs, and it is a rivalry rich in college football tradition.    In 1924, Knute Rockne's first season as head coach of Notre Dame----the Irish played Army before 53,000 at the Polo Grounds in New York, and the Irish won 13-12 on their way to a National Championship and their place in college football history.  

The rivalry resumes this weeked in the first football game played at the new Yankee Stadium.

This year's Notre Dame team is the walking wounded.    The Irish are playing without their starting quarterback, their starting running back, two starting receivers, and perhaps the country's best tight end, Kyle Rudolph.    There's more.   ND is without their best DT---Ian Williams, their starting ILB, Anthony MacDonald, and their secondary is banged up as well.

More discouraging to ND fans is what Navy did to Notre Dame just a few weeks back with their version of the triple option.   Navy gashed Notre Dame for 367 yards on the ground and coasted to a win over the Irish.

Having said all that, why would I like the Irish?

Two words.   Brian Kelly.    They guy can flat-out coach, and before anyone laughs at that, look no further than ND's starting QB.   He is an 18 year-old true freshman named Tommy Rees.   Rees had 3 other Division 1-A offers, and was an "add-on" in the recruiting world after Notre Dame signed heralded freshman Andrew Hendrix last February.    Kelly has worked his magic with Rees.    He has simplified ND's offensive package, and allowed him to do what he does best.    That was obvious in Notre Dame's demolition of Utah, 28-3 last Saturday.    Rees was poised, made throw after throw, and was never rattled when Utah brought blitz after blitz. 

Another reason to like ND?  Their defense.    That's right.   Notre Dame's defense.   After Navy tore ND apart, Kelly and Irish-DC Bob Diaco have shown more 4-man fronts, and it has allowed true freshmen---Prince Shembo and Kona Schwenke to get on the field.    Shembo and Shwenke dominated Utah's senior offensive line last Saturday.  

If you take a close look at Notre Dame's defensive performance the past few weeks you can see the obvious improvement.    Take the Tulsa loss.   ND lost their quarterback in the first quarter, but still had their chance to win the game.     They gave up a punt return for a td, and had a pass deflection returned for a td in the last 20 seconds of the first half.    Outside of those two blunders, the Irish surrendered just 13 points.    They allowed 17 points to Pitt, and just 13 to Boston College.

Looking at Army, I am hard pressed to find a win of quality.    The Black Knights have beaten Eastern Michigan, Duke, VMI, Kent State, North Texas and Tulane.   Not exactly murderer's row.   Give the Black Knights credit, they have worked hard under coach of Rich Ellison and have earned a bowl berth for this 2010 season.   Army runs the triple-option, and that will cause ND problems, but I fully expect ND to have solved it this time around.

Army doesn't run the ball nearly as well as Navy does, and they don't offer the same passing threat Navy does.

While Notre Dame's team looks like a MASH unit, they are still remarkably talented, and they are coached extremely well.    It is going to take Brian Kelly a few years to clean the culture and climate that surrounded Notre Dame's program when he was hired.    And it is games like last Saturday that demonstrates what Kelly can do.   

Notre Dame and Brian Kelly are going to win on Saturday.    They are going to be highly motivated as they have a bowl berth on the line.    Tommy Rees will continue to impress.   Army will not be able to move the ball as Navy did, and the Irish win this game by 17.

As always, best of luck to all of you!

The play is Notre Dame (-8) over Army.

 

Lesson learned last week.

Importance of line shopping will always be the difference between a winning weekend and a losing one. Last week I was convinced the Notre Dame-Purdue line would creep up toward 12---so I jumped on 11.5 midweek. WRONG. The Purdue money brought that line all the way down to 10.5 at kickoff and it cost me a chance at a winning weekend.

This week it is the same routine. 5 games. Here they are.

#1. [B]Florida Atlantic +28[/B] v. Michigan [B]State[/B] (BetJam) [B]Risking 110 to win...[/B]

Ahhhh, here that sound?   It is the sound of college football fans everywhere leaving out that gasp of satisfaction knowing the 2010 College Football Season is upon us.

Is there any better than to kickoff the season than with a good matchup between two good college football teams, the Utah Utes and the Pittsburgh Panthers?

Of course not.

Pitt heads out west to play Utah.   The game is being televised at 8PM on Versus.  

Utah is the second best team in the Mountain West Conference.    They are a very impressive 23-3 over the last two seasons.    Kyle Whittingham has proven he can coach very well, as demonstrated by both his regular season and post-season bowl performances.    The Utes return 8 starters on offense and 4 on defense. 

Dave Wannstedt's  Pitt teams have enjoyed more modest success.    Wannstedt has yet to deliver a Big East Championship, or a BCS bowl game.   The Panthers did manage 10 wins last year, and are a collective 19-7 the last two seasons.     The Panthers are returning 5 starters on offense and 6 on defense.

As I examine this game----a few things stand out to me.   One, Utah has a decided coaching advantage.   Whittingham's  Utah teams are amazingly consistent the past 3 seasons.    His 3 losses were on the road against eventual Pac-10 Champ Oregon, Fiesta Bowl bound-TCU, and to BYU.  

Pitt on the other hand under Wannstedt have been wildly inconsistent.   In Wannstedt's time at Pitt---the Panthers have early season losses to the following teams:   Ohio, Navy, Bowling Green, Virginia, and NC State.     The Panthers had a 21-pt lead against Cincinnati in the regular season finale of 2009, and lost 45-44.  

QB play is going to have a significant role in this game.   The Utes return Jordan Wynn.   Wynn took over the final 5 games of the 2009 season, and the Utes averaged almost 35 ppg.    He was incredible in their bowl win over Cal, throwing for more than 300 yards, with a completion percentage of almost 73%.    Wynn is going to give the Panthers fits, he makes good decisions, and the experience gained from last year will obviously help him.

Pitt on the other hand is starting a brand new QB.    Tino Sunseri takes over for the Panthers.   Sunseri has attempted a grand total of 17 passes in his young career.    Complicating things for both Pitt and Sunseri is the fact that Pittsburgh breaks in 4 brand new starters along the OL.     In fact, Pitt's 42 starts among returning OL rank near the bottom of all 1-A football teams this year.  

Pitt does have freshman sensation, Dion Lewis in the backfield----a young man who rushed for almost 1900 yards-but this new OL may make it more difficult for him to find his spots as he so easily did last year.    I expect Pitt to rely on Lewis, and try to protect Sunseri from making any mistakes but Utah will take away Pitt's ability to run.

Lastly.   Location.     This game is being played on the campus of Utah---where the Utes have won an amazing 17 straight games dating back to 2007.    Pitt hasn't opened on the road in the Wannstedy era of Pitt Panther football, so this is a first for just about everyone around the program right now.   

In conclusion, Utah has the better coach, the more experienced QB, and a decided home-field advantage.     The Panthers are starting a new QB---with a rebuilt offensive line---on the road.    Nothing here points their way.

The selection for this game is Utah (-3).    I feel comfortable with this selection, and expect the Utes to provide me some comfort in this one.

As always, best of luck to all of you!

Thankfully----College Football is HERE!!

Ahhhh, this is one of my favorite times of the year.   Mid-May.    The NHL and NBA playoffs are heating up, MLB is starting to get interesting, and the second leg of horse racing's triple crown is upon us.

This is the 135th running of the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore, Maryland.  

The weather is expected to be perfect for racing.    Forecasters are calling for 78 degress of sunshine and little cloud coverage.    It will be a great day to get to the track and take in the event.

There are 12 entries in this year's race, each Colt and Gelding carrying 126 pounds over the 1 mile and 3/16ths race.

Post time is 6:15 EST and will be carried on NBC.

This is the lineup of horses and their respective post postions for tomorow's race.

1.  Aikenite                     20-1                    Trainer:  Todd Pletcher                 Jockey  Javier Castellano

2.  Schoolyard Dreams    15-1                     Trainer:  Derek Ryan                   Jockey:  Elbar Coa

3.  Pleasant Prince          20-1                     Trainer:  Wesley Ward                Jockey:  Julien Leparoux

4.  Northern Giant            30-1                     Trainer:  D. Wayne Lucas           Jockey:  Terry Thompson

5.  Yawanna Twist           30-1                      Trainer:  Rick Dudrow Jr              Jockey:  Edgar Prado

6.  Jackson Bend            12-1                       Trainer:  Nick Zito                       Jockey:  Mike Smith

7.  Lookin at Lucky           3-1                        Trainer:  Bob Baffert                    Jockey:  Martin Garcia

8.  Super Saver                5-2                         Trainer:  Todd Pletcher                Jockey:   Calvin Borel

9.  Caracortado                10-1                       Trainer:  Mike Machowsky           Jockey:  Paul Atkinson

10.  Paddy O'Prado          9-2                          Trainer:  Dale Romans               Jockey:  Kent Desormeaux

11.  First Dude               20-1                          Trainer:  Dale Romans                Jockey:  Ramon Dominguez

12.  Dublin                     10-1                           Trainer:  D. Wayne Lucas           Jockey:  Garrett Gomez

The Favorites:

#8 Super Saver     The Kentucky Derby winner has Calvin Borel riding him, and is trained by Todd Pletcher.   Borel has already said that this horse is going to win the Triple Crown, and you just have to love the bravado of Borel.    He isn't afraid of the pressure and the expectations that come with a Derby winner.   

#7.  Lookin at Lucy.    This Bay Colt got hammered inside at Churchill Downs and never recovered.   He wasn't deterred though.    He moved from 18th to finish 6th in a game effort.    I like this horse here.   I think he is going to be just fine and if jockey Martin Garcia can steer him away from trouble early he is going to be very difficult to beat, and when all is said and done may give trainer Bob Baffert his 5th Preakness Stakes win.

#12 Dublin.   This is another horse that got banged around at the Kentucky Derby and wasn't able to make any headway early on in that race.  He recovered impressively to finish 7th at Churchill Downs.   D. Wayne Lucas is the trainer here, and the man has 5 Preakness titles on his resume.    There will also be a new rider on Dublin this week, moving to Garrett Gomez.    I like the smaller field here to allow Dublin to avoid the crowds that he saw and got caught up in in Kentucky   This horse will threaten at the end tomorrow.   

Long(er) Shots:

#2 Schoolyard Dreams.   I like this horse as well.    This Bay Colt ran impressively at the Tampa Derby where he actually beat Super Saver.   This horse has fresh legs and is getting some press for his impressive workouts in Baltimore.    Derek Ryan is the trainer, and Elbar Coa will be riding Schoolyard.   He has had 4 starts in 2010 and has one win, and two second place finished. 

Now the fun part.

Trying to figure out what my bets are going to be tomorrow.

I like these two exotic wagers.

I like a box of 8-7-12-2.

I also like a box of 8-7-2 and 10.

For the trifecta....

I like the 8-7-2

and for the exacta....

I like the 8-7.

This should be a fun day of racing, and there are many horses that can't be counted out.    I think Borel's riding and Pletcher's training of Super Saver will give them a chance to move forward on their Triple Crown hunt.

As always, best of luck to everyone!!

Okay, that is more like it now.

A nice 2'fer winning day/night on Thursday, raising my blog roll record to 14-11 and a net unit profit of 3.06 units for the season.

Today's first game to look at is the San Francisco Girants visiting the New York Mets.  The Giants enter the game 17-11 and 7-6 on the road, while the Mets are 16-13 overall and are an impressive 12-5 at home.   The Mets plated 2 in the bottom half of the ninth inning last night to get the win in this first game of this weekend series.

On the mound today for the Giants is Todd Wellemeyer.   Wellemeyer is 1-3 on the year, with an ERA at 5.55 and WHIP of 1.48.    Wellemeyer has only worked past the 6th inning of 2 of his 5 starts.   In his last 14 innings he has been somewhat more consistent, allowing 4 earned runs, 8 hits, and a more respectable WHIP of 1.53.

For the Mets, they are rolling out Johan Santana.   Santana is 3-2 with a 4.5 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.29.  Santana is coming off a nightmare start, where he was absolutely oblieratd by the Philadelphia Phillies.   The Phils got to Santana for 10 earned runs...in just over 3 innings of work.   Santana surrendered 8 hits and 2 walks.  Santana only had a single strikeout, and therein lie the problem.   Santana is not pushing the radar gun these days.    His fastball never broke out of the high 80's, and the Philly hitters abused his lack of speed.  

Recent trends favor the Giants in this spot.   San Francisco is 5-2 their last 7 games, while the Mets are just 2-4 over their last 6 games.  The Giants are the third best hitting team in the NL (9.5 hits/game), and they also strike out the least per game.   From a pitching perspective, the Giants are the stingiest defense/pitching staff in the NL, allowing only 3.1 runs per game.

This game is a value selection for me.   The Giants (+160) are a good baseball team, and this is not the early-mid 2000's version of Johan Santana.  Santana's fastball isn't very fast, and the Giants hit well enough to cause him problems.   Anytime a team as talented as the Giants starts getting a number north of +150, and are facing a pitcher who doesn't have his best stuff as of late---I like the value that provides.

The selection here will be the Giants (+160).

The second game on my blog selection sheet is between the Philadelphia Phillies (-155) and the Atlanta Braves.   The Phillies enter the game with an overall record of 18-11 and are 9-5 at home.   Atlanta is just 12-17 overall with a very disappointing road record of 4-13.   

The Phillies pitching is as hot as it gets right now.   They have allowed just 3 earned runs over their last 36 innings of work, including 2 shut outs of St. Louis and Atlanta last night.

The Phillies are placing the ball in the glove of Joe Blanton today, and although Blanton has only one start, and allowed 4 earned runs in that game over 6 and 1/3 innings of work----he looked good.   Blanton was in mid-season form in that game, but he had one bad inning that simply got away from him.   Up until the 6th, Blanton was controlling St. Louis with relative ease...and it looked like he would earn the win, but then he allowed a single to right, hit a batter, and then walked another.    The wheels had come off.

Atlanta has Kris Medlen on the mound today, and the young 25-year old has been pretty good this year so far for Atlanta.   He enters the game 1-1, with an ERA of 2.55 and an impressive WHIP of 1.09.    Here's the catch though.   This is his first start of the season, and he gets to do it in Philadelphia against the 2-time defending NL champs.

I will take Blanton in this spot.

The selection in this one is Philadelphia (-155).

As always, best of luck to everyone!

 

I am looking forward to today's Thursday baseball action as I have found 2 games that I like a lot.

I am a big fan of pitching, and you will see that in my write up today.    I am focusing on two of the most durable, and dominating pitchers in the national league.

Before that though a re-cap of where we are on the season.   Last night's late game plays went 1-2 and brought my record down to 12-11, but still on the positive side of the ledger with a net profit of 1.6 units.

The first game on the roll today is between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Philles.

This is the 4th and final game of this midweek series between these two clubs, and Philadelphia has won 2 of the first 3.   The Phillies are getting solid pitching and they have saved the very best for last.   Thankfully for the Phillies---every 5th day is a Halladay----as in Roy Halladay.    The impressive workhorse takes the mound today at 1:05 EST and looks to build on his season resume.   Halladay is 5-1 so far on the season, with an ERA of 1.47, and a WHIP of 0.88.   He has struck out 37 batters and walked just 4.   To demonstrate just how good Halladay has been, he has struck out (37) nearly as many hitters as the number of hits surrendered (39).    Halladay already has 3......3 complete game wins before May 6th!     

Opposing Halladay is Kyle Lohse.   Not exactly in the same league as Halladay.    Lohse is 0-1 on the season, and has an ERA of 5.28, and a WHIP of 1.38. 

I don't know how St. Louis is going to solve Halladay today.   They have struggled to hit Philly pitching, and were shut out by Kyle Kendrick and Philly's misfit bullpen yesterday.    It certainly doesn't get easier for them today, and I expect Halladay to have some success against the Cards.   St. Louis will need to score 5-6 runs to have a shot at winning today, and I just can't for the life of me foresee a situation where they get to Halladay for that many runs.

The selection here is a very obvious one.

Philadelphia -230....heavy heavy heavy chalk.   I know, but it is worth it.

The second game in my selecton roll call is the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130).

The Diamondbacks have won 2 of the first 3 in this 4 game series, and they stand at 13-15 on the year.    The Astroes are 9-18, and they are really struggling offensively.  

Today the Dbacks have Dan Haren on the mound.   And like Roy Halladay of the Phillies-----Haren is a workhorse.   He has pitched in 6 games this year, and has lasted no fewer 6 innings in every one of his starts.   Haren is 3-1 on the year, and the only thing that surprises me about him this season is his ERA.   It is 4.50, and his WHIP is high for him, at 1.30.   Haren is striking hitters (41K) this season, but he is walking more than normal.   His last two outings have been more "Haren-esque", and fully expect that trend to continue today.

The Astroes have Wandy Rodriguez on the mound today, and he has pitched well this season.   Rodriguez is just 1-3 on the year, but his ERA is a very respectable 3.64.    Rodriguez doesn't get much run support from the offensively challenged Astroes, and that is why he isn't lighting up the win column this season.

I just don't think Houston can get to Haren, they just do not have the hitters.    

The selection in the second game is the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130).

If there is a theme to my selections today----it is going with the workhorse-----Halladay for the Phillies and Dan Haren for the Dbacks.

As always, Best of Luck to everyone!