Well, I had a nice start to the 2010 season. I went 2-0 on Thursday on my SBR Thread Selections, and that included my Blog selection of Utah (-2.5).

Today the focus turns to South Bend, Indiana where Notre Dame is taking on in-state rival Purdue to open both teams 2010 season.

For ND this is the dawn of a new coaching era. In is Brian Kelly, out is Charlie Weis. Kelly has proven his coaching skills at Grand Valley State (D2), Central Michigan and most recently at the University of Cincinnati. At Cincinnati, Kelly was back-to-back Big East Championships. Last year his Bearcats finished the regular season 12-0.

Purdue has Danny Hope returning for his second year at the Boilermakers helm. Hope had a topsy-turvy 2009 season. His team finished with an overall losing record but did manage a huge upset win over Ohio State.

Notre Dame lost more than Charlie Weis. They lost Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate to the NFL. Taking over the QB position for the Irish is Dayne Crist. Crist is coming off a knee injury suffered last fall. Crist may not have Clausen's pedigree, but he certainly has his team's respect. Reports out of South Bend are very positive for Crist, and Brian Kelly has been very complimentary of his junior QB.

ND returns leading rusher, Armando Allen in the backfield and a host of WR talent. Michael Floyd may be the best WR in the country, and lining up next to him will be TE Kyle Rudolph, also arguably the best at his position in the country.

Defensively ND is making a switch back to the 3-4. New DC Bob Diacco loves his team's personality and thinks the move to the 3-4 fits their talent more naturally. Lining up for the Irish on the defensive side of the ball is Manti Te'o. Te'o was considered to be the #1 LB coming out of high school in 2009, and turned down offers from just about everyone to play for ND.

Purdue returns just 11 starters in 2010. Taking over for Joey Elliot is QB Robert Mavre. Mavre is a transfer from the University of Miami where he ran into some academic and off/field issues. The biggest loss for Purdue this off-season though was at RB---where Robert Bolden was lost for the 2010 season with a knee injury. Bolden was very productive in 2009 and his loss will hurt Purdue this season.

Purdue's defense is well, a question mark. They lost everyone in their secondary and that doesn't pose well for an offense like the one Kelly will be putting on display today in South Bend.

I think this game is easier to handicap than most people do. I am convinced Brian Kelly gives ND a significant coaching advantage and I think Kelly is going to want to make a statement in today's game. Purdue's defensive inexperience will hurt them, and Kelly has a boatload of skill position talent to work with. Floyd, Rudolph, Allen, Wood----they will all have big days today.

If you are a numbers guy and are looking for some statistical advantages for picking ND---consider this. The home team in this series is 10-4 ATS the last 14 games, and ND has outgained the Boilers in 6 of the last 7 games these two teams have played.

I don't like to use the word "feel" in making a selection, but I think it applies here. This one just "feels" right. Notre Dame at home, new coach, new system----sky high on emotion----all things point to the Irish. Adding to Purdue's woes---a brand new OL, a brand new secondary.

The selection here is the Irish (-11.5).

As always, best of luck to everyone!!!

Ahhhh, here that sound?   It is the sound of college football fans everywhere leaving out that gasp of satisfaction knowing the 2010 College Football Season is upon us.

Is there any better than to kickoff the season than with a good matchup between two good college football teams, the Utah Utes and the Pittsburgh Panthers?

Of course not.

Pitt heads out west to play Utah.   The game is being televised at 8PM on Versus.  

Utah is the second best team in the Mountain West Conference.    They are a very impressive 23-3 over the last two seasons.    Kyle Whittingham has proven he can coach very well, as demonstrated by both his regular season and post-season bowl performances.    The Utes return 8 starters on offense and 4 on defense. 

Dave Wannstedt's  Pitt teams have enjoyed more modest success.    Wannstedt has yet to deliver a Big East Championship, or a BCS bowl game.   The Panthers did manage 10 wins last year, and are a collective 19-7 the last two seasons.     The Panthers are returning 5 starters on offense and 6 on defense.

As I examine this game----a few things stand out to me.   One, Utah has a decided coaching advantage.   Whittingham's  Utah teams are amazingly consistent the past 3 seasons.    His 3 losses were on the road against eventual Pac-10 Champ Oregon, Fiesta Bowl bound-TCU, and to BYU.  

Pitt on the other hand under Wannstedt have been wildly inconsistent.   In Wannstedt's time at Pitt---the Panthers have early season losses to the following teams:   Ohio, Navy, Bowling Green, Virginia, and NC State.     The Panthers had a 21-pt lead against Cincinnati in the regular season finale of 2009, and lost 45-44.  

QB play is going to have a significant role in this game.   The Utes return Jordan Wynn.   Wynn took over the final 5 games of the 2009 season, and the Utes averaged almost 35 ppg.    He was incredible in their bowl win over Cal, throwing for more than 300 yards, with a completion percentage of almost 73%.    Wynn is going to give the Panthers fits, he makes good decisions, and the experience gained from last year will obviously help him.

Pitt on the other hand is starting a brand new QB.    Tino Sunseri takes over for the Panthers.   Sunseri has attempted a grand total of 17 passes in his young career.    Complicating things for both Pitt and Sunseri is the fact that Pittsburgh breaks in 4 brand new starters along the OL.     In fact, Pitt's 42 starts among returning OL rank near the bottom of all 1-A football teams this year.  

Pitt does have freshman sensation, Dion Lewis in the backfield----a young man who rushed for almost 1900 yards-but this new OL may make it more difficult for him to find his spots as he so easily did last year.    I expect Pitt to rely on Lewis, and try to protect Sunseri from making any mistakes but Utah will take away Pitt's ability to run.

Lastly.   Location.     This game is being played on the campus of Utah---where the Utes have won an amazing 17 straight games dating back to 2007.    Pitt hasn't opened on the road in the Wannstedy era of Pitt Panther football, so this is a first for just about everyone around the program right now.   

In conclusion, Utah has the better coach, the more experienced QB, and a decided home-field advantage.     The Panthers are starting a new QB---with a rebuilt offensive line---on the road.    Nothing here points their way.

The selection for this game is Utah (-3).    I feel comfortable with this selection, and expect the Utes to provide me some comfort in this one.

As always, best of luck to all of you!

Thankfully----College Football is HERE!!

Guys...I joined this site a few years ago, and it always made me laugh, scream, and most of all-----it just felt like a good place to talk sports, handicapping and make some days pass a little easier.

At the end of May----my wife and I lost our 9 year old boy to Leukemia.

What a horseshit horrible disease. It has robbed my family of our greatest joy---our oldest child. Anyone who tells you time heals----they lie. It doesn't.

The experience has been tougher than anyone can possibly imagine. Not a day goes by...

Ahhhh, this is one of my favorite times of the year.   Mid-May.    The NHL and NBA playoffs are heating up, MLB is starting to get interesting, and the second leg of horse racing's triple crown is upon us.

This is the 135th running of the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore, Maryland.  

The weather is expected to be perfect for racing.    Forecasters are calling for 78 degress of sunshine and little cloud coverage.    It will be a great day to get to the track and take in the event.

There are 12 entries in this year's race, each Colt and Gelding carrying 126 pounds over the 1 mile and 3/16ths race.

Post time is 6:15 EST and will be carried on NBC.

This is the lineup of horses and their respective post postions for tomorow's race.

1.  Aikenite                     20-1                    Trainer:  Todd Pletcher                 Jockey  Javier Castellano

2.  Schoolyard Dreams    15-1                     Trainer:  Derek Ryan                   Jockey:  Elbar Coa

3.  Pleasant Prince          20-1                     Trainer:  Wesley Ward                Jockey:  Julien Leparoux

4.  Northern Giant            30-1                     Trainer:  D. Wayne Lucas           Jockey:  Terry Thompson

5.  Yawanna Twist           30-1                      Trainer:  Rick Dudrow Jr              Jockey:  Edgar Prado

6.  Jackson Bend            12-1                       Trainer:  Nick Zito                       Jockey:  Mike Smith

7.  Lookin at Lucky           3-1                        Trainer:  Bob Baffert                    Jockey:  Martin Garcia

8.  Super Saver                5-2                         Trainer:  Todd Pletcher                Jockey:   Calvin Borel

9.  Caracortado                10-1                       Trainer:  Mike Machowsky           Jockey:  Paul Atkinson

10.  Paddy O'Prado          9-2                          Trainer:  Dale Romans               Jockey:  Kent Desormeaux

11.  First Dude               20-1                          Trainer:  Dale Romans                Jockey:  Ramon Dominguez

12.  Dublin                     10-1                           Trainer:  D. Wayne Lucas           Jockey:  Garrett Gomez

The Favorites:

#8 Super Saver     The Kentucky Derby winner has Calvin Borel riding him, and is trained by Todd Pletcher.   Borel has already said that this horse is going to win the Triple Crown, and you just have to love the bravado of Borel.    He isn't afraid of the pressure and the expectations that come with a Derby winner.   

#7.  Lookin at Lucy.    This Bay Colt got hammered inside at Churchill Downs and never recovered.   He wasn't deterred though.    He moved from 18th to finish 6th in a game effort.    I like this horse here.   I think he is going to be just fine and if jockey Martin Garcia can steer him away from trouble early he is going to be very difficult to beat, and when all is said and done may give trainer Bob Baffert his 5th Preakness Stakes win.

#12 Dublin.   This is another horse that got banged around at the Kentucky Derby and wasn't able to make any headway early on in that race.  He recovered impressively to finish 7th at Churchill Downs.   D. Wayne Lucas is the trainer here, and the man has 5 Preakness titles on his resume.    There will also be a new rider on Dublin this week, moving to Garrett Gomez.    I like the smaller field here to allow Dublin to avoid the crowds that he saw and got caught up in in Kentucky   This horse will threaten at the end tomorrow.   

Long(er) Shots:

#2 Schoolyard Dreams.   I like this horse as well.    This Bay Colt ran impressively at the Tampa Derby where he actually beat Super Saver.   This horse has fresh legs and is getting some press for his impressive workouts in Baltimore.    Derek Ryan is the trainer, and Elbar Coa will be riding Schoolyard.   He has had 4 starts in 2010 and has one win, and two second place finished. 

Now the fun part.

Trying to figure out what my bets are going to be tomorrow.

I like these two exotic wagers.

I like a box of 8-7-12-2.

I also like a box of 8-7-2 and 10.

For the trifecta....

I like the 8-7-2

and for the exacta....

I like the 8-7.

This should be a fun day of racing, and there are many horses that can't be counted out.    I think Borel's riding and Pletcher's training of Super Saver will give them a chance to move forward on their Triple Crown hunt.

As always, best of luck to everyone!!

Okay, that is more like it now.

A nice 2'fer winning day/night on Thursday, raising my blog roll record to 14-11 and a net unit profit of 3.06 units for the season.

Today's first game to look at is the San Francisco Girants visiting the New York Mets.  The Giants enter the game 17-11 and 7-6 on the road, while the Mets are 16-13 overall and are an impressive 12-5 at home.   The Mets plated 2 in the bottom half of the ninth inning last night to get the win in this first game of this weekend series.

On the mound today for the Giants is Todd Wellemeyer.   Wellemeyer is 1-3 on the year, with an ERA at 5.55 and WHIP of 1.48.    Wellemeyer has only worked past the 6th inning of 2 of his 5 starts.   In his last 14 innings he has been somewhat more consistent, allowing 4 earned runs, 8 hits, and a more respectable WHIP of 1.53.

For the Mets, they are rolling out Johan Santana.   Santana is 3-2 with a 4.5 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.29.  Santana is coming off a nightmare start, where he was absolutely oblieratd by the Philadelphia Phillies.   The Phils got to Santana for 10 earned runs...in just over 3 innings of work.   Santana surrendered 8 hits and 2 walks.  Santana only had a single strikeout, and therein lie the problem.   Santana is not pushing the radar gun these days.    His fastball never broke out of the high 80's, and the Philly hitters abused his lack of speed.  

Recent trends favor the Giants in this spot.   San Francisco is 5-2 their last 7 games, while the Mets are just 2-4 over their last 6 games.  The Giants are the third best hitting team in the NL (9.5 hits/game), and they also strike out the least per game.   From a pitching perspective, the Giants are the stingiest defense/pitching staff in the NL, allowing only 3.1 runs per game.

This game is a value selection for me.   The Giants (+160) are a good baseball team, and this is not the early-mid 2000's version of Johan Santana.  Santana's fastball isn't very fast, and the Giants hit well enough to cause him problems.   Anytime a team as talented as the Giants starts getting a number north of +150, and are facing a pitcher who doesn't have his best stuff as of late---I like the value that provides.

The selection here will be the Giants (+160).

The second game on my blog selection sheet is between the Philadelphia Phillies (-155) and the Atlanta Braves.   The Phillies enter the game with an overall record of 18-11 and are 9-5 at home.   Atlanta is just 12-17 overall with a very disappointing road record of 4-13.   

The Phillies pitching is as hot as it gets right now.   They have allowed just 3 earned runs over their last 36 innings of work, including 2 shut outs of St. Louis and Atlanta last night.

The Phillies are placing the ball in the glove of Joe Blanton today, and although Blanton has only one start, and allowed 4 earned runs in that game over 6 and 1/3 innings of work----he looked good.   Blanton was in mid-season form in that game, but he had one bad inning that simply got away from him.   Up until the 6th, Blanton was controlling St. Louis with relative ease...and it looked like he would earn the win, but then he allowed a single to right, hit a batter, and then walked another.    The wheels had come off.

Atlanta has Kris Medlen on the mound today, and the young 25-year old has been pretty good this year so far for Atlanta.   He enters the game 1-1, with an ERA of 2.55 and an impressive WHIP of 1.09.    Here's the catch though.   This is his first start of the season, and he gets to do it in Philadelphia against the 2-time defending NL champs.

I will take Blanton in this spot.

The selection in this one is Philadelphia (-155).

As always, best of luck to everyone!

 

I am looking forward to today's Thursday baseball action as I have found 2 games that I like a lot.

I am a big fan of pitching, and you will see that in my write up today.    I am focusing on two of the most durable, and dominating pitchers in the national league.

Before that though a re-cap of where we are on the season.   Last night's late game plays went 1-2 and brought my record down to 12-11, but still on the positive side of the ledger with a net profit of 1.6 units.

The first game on the roll today is between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Philles.

This is the 4th and final game of this midweek series between these two clubs, and Philadelphia has won 2 of the first 3.   The Phillies are getting solid pitching and they have saved the very best for last.   Thankfully for the Phillies---every 5th day is a Halladay----as in Roy Halladay.    The impressive workhorse takes the mound today at 1:05 EST and looks to build on his season resume.   Halladay is 5-1 so far on the season, with an ERA of 1.47, and a WHIP of 0.88.   He has struck out 37 batters and walked just 4.   To demonstrate just how good Halladay has been, he has struck out (37) nearly as many hitters as the number of hits surrendered (39).    Halladay already has 3......3 complete game wins before May 6th!     

Opposing Halladay is Kyle Lohse.   Not exactly in the same league as Halladay.    Lohse is 0-1 on the season, and has an ERA of 5.28, and a WHIP of 1.38. 

I don't know how St. Louis is going to solve Halladay today.   They have struggled to hit Philly pitching, and were shut out by Kyle Kendrick and Philly's misfit bullpen yesterday.    It certainly doesn't get easier for them today, and I expect Halladay to have some success against the Cards.   St. Louis will need to score 5-6 runs to have a shot at winning today, and I just can't for the life of me foresee a situation where they get to Halladay for that many runs.

The selection here is a very obvious one.

Philadelphia -230....heavy heavy heavy chalk.   I know, but it is worth it.

The second game in my selecton roll call is the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130).

The Diamondbacks have won 2 of the first 3 in this 4 game series, and they stand at 13-15 on the year.    The Astroes are 9-18, and they are really struggling offensively.  

Today the Dbacks have Dan Haren on the mound.   And like Roy Halladay of the Phillies-----Haren is a workhorse.   He has pitched in 6 games this year, and has lasted no fewer 6 innings in every one of his starts.   Haren is 3-1 on the year, and the only thing that surprises me about him this season is his ERA.   It is 4.50, and his WHIP is high for him, at 1.30.   Haren is striking hitters (41K) this season, but he is walking more than normal.   His last two outings have been more "Haren-esque", and fully expect that trend to continue today.

The Astroes have Wandy Rodriguez on the mound today, and he has pitched well this season.   Rodriguez is just 1-3 on the year, but his ERA is a very respectable 3.64.    Rodriguez doesn't get much run support from the offensively challenged Astroes, and that is why he isn't lighting up the win column this season.

I just don't think Houston can get to Haren, they just do not have the hitters.    

The selection in the second game is the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130).

If there is a theme to my selections today----it is going with the workhorse-----Halladay for the Phillies and Dan Haren for the Dbacks.

As always, Best of Luck to everyone!

 

 

I am getting this in a little late but I love these three games.

All are 10:05 EST start times.

The first game up is between the Colorado Rockies (+132) and the San Diego Padres.   I like Colorado here for a few reasons.   Aaron Cook is taking the mound for Colorado, and Cook is just 1-3 this season with an ERA above 5 runs per game.   His WHIP is also a very unimpressive-1.57.   Cook does have a complete game win over Florida this season but was rocked in outings against San Francisco and the New York Mets.   Why am I on Cook and the Rockies?  Well, it is Cook's career success against San Diego.   Cook is a lofty 13-4 against the Padres in his career with an impressive 2.66 career ERA to boot.

That is good enough for me.  

I think Cook gets the job done tonight and the Rockies pull out the win.

The selection in game one is Colorado +132.

In the second game of my selection roll, the Seattle Mariners are playing host to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.   Tampa Bay brings in MLB's best road record at an astonishing 10-1.    They also have the best overall record in baseball early in the 2010 season.    Seattle is settling into the bottom of the AL West division with an 11-15 overall record.

Tonight that changes.   On the mound for the Mariners is Cliff Lee, and I am still scratching my head why the Philadelphia Phillies weren't able to find a spot for Lee and move Cole Hamels.   Nonetheless, that is now water under the bridge for Lee and Philadelphia.    Lee has had one start this season, and what a start it was.   He went 7 strong innings, allowing just 3 hits, walking zero batters, and not a single run crossed the plate against Lee.   Lee's career record against Tampa Bay is 6-2, with 2.32 ERA and a WHIP of .99.   Tampa Bay has struggled trying to hit Lee, and I am convinced that continues tonight.

Tampa Bay is throwing out Matt Garza who is no slouch himself.   Garza enters tonight's game against Seattle at 4-1 overall, with an ERA of 2.06, and an ERA of 1.14.    Even with those impressive numbers in hand, I just don't think Tampa Bay will be able to solve Cliff Lee tonight.  

The play in this game is Seattle (-108).

The third and final game is between the Milwaukee Brewers and the LA Dodgers.   Both teams enter this game with identical 11-15 records and are disappointed with their results.  

The Dodgers are placing Chad Billingsley (2-1, 4.85 ERA) on the mound to face off against the Brewers.   Billingsley has great stuff is just inconsistent as of late.   His high ERA and WHIP are evidence that he is struggling with his control.  

Milwaukee has Doug Davis on the mound tonight, and quite frankly---Davis has been horrific this season.   He is 0-3, with an ERA of 8.87, and a WHIP of 2.25.  

LA---playing at home with the better pitcher on the mound is my play.   I just don't see Davis righting his ship tonight, and I think LA will get to him early and often.   Billingsley on the other hand will have enough stuff to keep Milwaukee from jumping on him.  

The selection in game three----the LA Dodgers (-167).

As always, best of luck to everyone!

 

Ahhh, spring has officially arrived.   Derby Day is here.   What a great start to the month of May---the Kentucky Derby.   For those of you watching at home, sit back---sip the mint juleps and enjoy the racing day.

20 horses---all with hope in their eyes, will race toward one of sports greatest prizes.  

Weather is/will be the story today.   Heavy rainfall is expected at Churchill Downs this afternoon and will play a role in crowning the champion.

Below are my choices to win today......

1.   Sidney's Candy.   5-1.   I like Sidney's Candy today, especially in this weather.  He is starting from the 20 spot, and that could keep him clear of the garbage inside on the muddy track.   This colt is trained by John Sadley, and has a young jockey---Joe Talamo riding him.    Sidney's Candy has the speed to make up the ground from the outside.    Whispers at Churchill Downs are how impressive this colt has been while working out.   If he handles the dirt/mud well he is a very dangerous horse.

2.  Devil May Care.  10-1.   Ahhh, another Filly.   This young lass won the Grade 1 Frizette as a 2-year old, and in 2 starts this year she finished 5th and won in Bonnie, Mississippi.   Her trainer is Todd Pletcher, who has yet to be crowned at Churchill Downs.   Riding Devil May Care is John Velazquez.   Another horse that is training really well at Churchill and in a wide-open field can be difficult to predict.   I like her and I think she will be near the front when this Derby ends today.

3.  Lookin at Lucky.  3-1.   The favorite right now.   And this horse is a pro.   Had tough starts at Santa Anita Derby but still managed a third place finish.   In his other start this year he won on his first start on dirt.  The trainer here is Bob Baffert, and the rider is Gerrett Gomez.   Baffert has had three of his horses win the Kentucky Derby so any horse attached to Baffert has to be given serious consideration.

Longer shots.....

1.  Stately Victor.  30-1.   A bay colt trained by Michael Maker and being rode by Alan Garcia.   This is a turf horse riding on dirt and that usually doesn't bode well, but I have to respect the win at the Blue Grass where he went off at 40-1.    Who knows how he will finish, but at 30-1 this has value in it.

2.  Super Saver.  15-1.   A bay colt being jockey'd by none other than last year's hero---Calvin Borel.   What a great story that was last year, and Borel is looking to repeat that performance this year.   This is another Todd Pletcher horse, and he has had solid results.   Finished 3rd at the Tampa Derby and was nipped at the line to finish 2nd at the Arkansas Derby.  Tend to set the pace and in these conditions could end up making a serious run.

Those are my selections for this year's Kentucky Derby.

I will be making these following plays.

A trifecta box of Sidney's Candy/Super Saver/Lookin at Lucky.

Stately Victor across the board.

Super Silver across the board.

As always, best of luck to everyone!!

I had a profitable day yesterday with the Diamondbacks crushing the Cubs raising my record to 10-8 on the season with a net profit of 2.23 units.

There are two selections on my blog sheet today.

The first game takes me back to Chicago again for Diamonbacks/Cubbies game two of a four game set.    The Diamondbacks won yesterday 13-5, raising their record to 11-11 on the season.   Meanwhile the Cubbies dropped to 10-13 on the season and are just 4-6 at Wrigley.   

Pitching for Arizona today is Ridrigo Lopez.   Lopez enters today's game at 1-0, with an ERA of 4.88, and a WHIP of 1.67.    Lopez has had mixed results so far this year.    In his last game the Phillies pounded him for 10 hits and 6 earned runs in just 6 innings.   However, in his start prior to that game, Lopez locked down the St. Louis Cardinals, pitching 7 innings and giving up just 2 earned runs.

On the mound for Lou Pinella and the Cubs today will be Randy Wells.   Wells is 2-0 on the season with an ERA of 2.49 and an ERA of 1.34.   Wells has pitched very well his last two games.   He went 7 innings, and allowed just 2 earned runs against Milwaukee, and prior to that he went 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Mets.    Wells' problems have been at home.   In his last outing at Wrigley he was rocked.    In an April 14th game against Milwaukee Wells pitched 6 innings giving up 10 hits and 4 earned runs.   He pitched his way out of 3 jams in that one, or his run line would have been significantly worse.

Baseball games are often about pitching matchups, but not this one.    Arizona's offense is simply better than the Cubs right now, and we saw that yesterday.    Ted Lilly came into yesterday's game with two solid outings----then the wind of Wrigley took over and the D'backs rolled to 13 runs.   I think today will pose problems for Wells.   Another day game, another call for the wind blowing out.   Recipes for disaster for Chicago.

Arizona---or more specifically---Arizona's offense is the call today.

The selection is Arizona +153.

The second game is between the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals.

This is a value selection with Cincinnati going off at an inflatable price of +180.

Outside of the New York Mets, these are the two hottest teams in the national league.    The Cardinals have won 5 straight and the Reds have won 4 straight.  

Pitching for the Cardinals today is Brad Penny.   Penny has been on fire, and has been dominant this season.   He enters today's game with a 3-0 record, and an ERA of 0-94, and a WHIP below 1!   Impressive numbers for Penny.     In his last 2 games Penny has pitched 8 innings in both games and has allowed only 2 runs in those 16 innings.  

The Reds have a youngin' on the mound today----24 year old Johnny Cueto.   Cueto is a frustrating pitcher to watch.   He has all the talent in the world, but just can't seem to find his control.   Earlier in the season he pitched well against St. Louis, going 6 strong innings and allowing just 2 earned runs.   The Reds will need that version of Cueto if they have any hope of winning tonight.

This game is a value selection for me.   Anytime I see a team with 4 wins in a row going off at +180 or better, I like to take a glance their way.    The Reds warrant that consideration today.  

The Reds (+180)  are my selection in this game.

As always, best of luck to everyone! 

I had a nice little winning day on Monday-----the Phillies and the Marlins cashed for me bringing the MB Blog Roll totals to 9-7 on the season, with a 2.09 unit net profit.

Today I am looking at two more games.

The first is an early start day game between the Minnesota Twins (14-7) and the Detroit Tigers (12-10).    The Twins are an impressive 8-4 on the road this season.

The Twins are rolling out Carl Pavano today, and normally that would be a reason not to select the Twins but his counterpart for the Tigers is Dontrelle Willis.   Willis is 0-1 on the season, his ERA is above 5 runs/game and his WHIP is 1.72.   He has walked more batters (10) than he has struck out (9) on the season.    Willis has two career starts against the Twins and the results have not been particularly pretty.   His ERA against the Twins stands at 7.94, with a WHIP of 2.29.

Pavano is 3-1 on the seasons so far, and his ERA is 4.24.   This is where Pavano becomes impressive.   He has struck out 17 batters on the season, and walked only one batter.   Pavano may be getting hit some, but he isn't walking many hitters and it may explain his turnaround.    In his last outing he beat Kansas City.    Pavano went 7 innings, allowed 2 earned runs, and surrendered just 4 hits.    In his career, Pavano is 4-1 against Detroit with an ERA of 3.05 and an impressive WHIP of just 1.03.

Minnesota has an edge on the mound, but they really enjoy an advantage offensively.    The Twins are 4-1 against left-handed pitchers this season, and Willis won't be the answer for the Tigers today.

The Twins average more runs per game, and draw more walks.  

I like the Twins in this game and you should too.

The selection in the first game is Minnesota (-138).

The second game on my twin bill selection sheet is between the Arizona Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.

Arizona is 10-11 this season, and the Cubbies enter the contest at 10-12.   The Cubbies are just 4-5 though in the "cozy confines of Wrigley Field".  

The Cubs have Ted Lilly on the mound for them today, and Lilly was impressive in his only start on April 24th.   He went 6 solid innings and he didn't allow a single run.    He only allowed 3 hits, and gave up 2 bases on balls.  

Facing off against Lilly is Ian Kennedy.   Kennedy has been consistent so far this year.    His ERA is 4.43 and his WHIP is 1.12.    Kennedy though has been impressive in his last two outings.   He has pitched 13 innings over his last 2 starts, and allowed just 2 earned runs.   He gave up just 6 hits in those 13 innings and 4 walks.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks average 5.52 runs per game while the Cubbies are scoring at a 4.36 runs per game clip.   Arizona also averages more hits and walks per 9 innings than the Cubbies do.    They also strike out fewer times, and are doing a good job at limiting mistakes on the basepaths.

My selection in this one is Arizona (+152).   This is a value pick.   These are two teams with nearly identical talent, and Ian Kennedy has been pitching well as of late.   Kennedy will continue that trend and keep this game close enough for his offense to win it for him.    I don't see Ted Lilly being good enough to warrant laying heavy chalk.   Historically Lilly is at-best-----a very average pitcher.   Arizona will score enough runs to allow Kennedy some comfort and get the win.

The selection in the second game is Arizona (+152).   

As always, best of luck to everyone!!